People make things too complicated and the costs can be very high in terms of time, energy, headaches, unforced errors etc.
This all begins with a false truth - the world is complicated - which leads to a false conclusion - solutions must be complicated too.
But we do not live in a complicated world. It just appears that way because there is so much noise.
Here is the real truth that has been obscured by all of this noise:
Life is simple, there is a short list of truths that clarify human nature, and this short list is all we need to know in order to thrive.
We see it play out in markets.
Managers deploy complicated strategies with big data, fancy formulas, seductive marketing pitches, and mesmerizing backtests yet underperform passive low cost broad market ETFs over and over again.
Here is a chart showing average annual hedge fund returns vs the S&P 500 for 2011-2020.
In 2024, keep an eye out for funds hawking AI investment strategies and billing up for them. I’m sure those will underperform too.
Beneath the surface, making things too complicated really just serves to distance ourselves from reality. It’s how we avoid our feelings, or deny death, or boost our egos, or disconnect from our people or whatever makes us uncomfortable in this hypercomfortable culture.
We’re even proud of our complexities and wear them like war medals.
Simplicity -Vs- Everybody
AKA Less thinking, more feeling.
Meanwhile, Simplicity vs Everybody will be my thing for 2024. I just invented it and it goes like this:
Instead of overthinking, I am underthinking, living by a handful of universal truths, and keying off of how I feel.
I even made a meme about it …
I am less interested in new theories, data, technologies, or complexities in general and find them overrated relative to the quality of my life.
For investing it manifests like this, buy a small number of low cost broad market ETFs and when you have more money buy more of them.
Since I am focused on wellness, this is how It manifests in the health and quality of life domain.
Good living is simple and straightforward. There are Four Elements:
1. Eat Real Food
2. Move Daily
3. Sleep & Rest
4. Love My People
Almost everything else is noise so I focus 98% on these four elements.
Here are a few things I do to manifest this philosophy:
Neglect
I ignore most things, because most things are noise. If lots of people are all excited by it, I especially ignore it.
Curation
Amid all the noise, there is some new information worth attending to. I filter noise by following a small group of smart health-focused people, via their newsletters or Twitter, who share the kinds of stuff that is of interest to me.
People like Brady, Chris C, Claus, and Chris P, among a few others.
Minimalism
Minimalism is a close cousin to simplicity. While Simplicity avoids maladaptive complexity, Minimalism avoids clutter.
I don’t need more things. I don’t need more cars or clothes or supplements or gadgets.
So I just avoid a lot of stuff too.
Intuitivism
We all have a natural tendency to thrive and I learn more by feeling than thinking so intuition plays a big role. This includes:
1. Tuning into my experiences.
2. Acting without thinking.
My fundamental metaphor for Intuitivism is jazz music like this and so I listen.
Have a great day everybody.
I am the founder of Pearl Institute. We offer personal health, performance, and decision making services to individuals and groups. You can schedule a 30 minute no fee consultation here.
That was a great note! I'll buy more ETFs based on that. I wish they gave you more share of voice on Trends with Friends :)
Great article! I remember reading Thoreau at a formative age, and his quote about how, To a philosopher, all news is just gossip. It has shaped my perspective ever since.